Top 10 Investment Themes for 2025
Happy New Year, everyone! As you may recall, our overall macro theme for 2024 was "An Expansion of the Rally." The theme ultimately proved to be accurate, as the dominance of the "Magnificent 7" stocks (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta Platforms) dissipated during the second half of the year as the other "Not So Magnificent 493" stocks (i.e., the remaining stocks of the S&P 500 Index) took over the leadership role. The "Magnificent 7" accounted for 62% of the total return of the S&P 500 in 2023 and 59% during the 1st half of 2024, but just 9.20% during the 3rd quarter of 2024. This passing of the baton is important, healthy, and constructive for the continuation of the current bull market run, which is now over 2 years old, with a cumulative return of 74.22% as of November 29, 2024. For perspective on this front, prior to the current bull market, according to data from Yardeni Research and Yahoo! Finance, there have been 12 bull markets since 1946, and the average duration of those bull markets was 5.3 years, with an average cumulative return of 177.5%. Of course, this time could be different, and past performance is not indicative of future results ... Read More